Betting: Predicting Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Betting on the Under/Over 2.5 goals market has became very popular. In fact, it’s now the second most popular bet type in Africa after 1X2.
Over/Under betting is based on the total goals scored in a game. Generally in football, bookmakers set 2.5 goal as the line and the bettor chooses Under 2.5 goals (no-score, 1 goal or 2 goals) or Over 2.5 goals (3 goals or more).
For this bet there’s no draw. It means you will win or lose your stake at the end of 90 minutes. You have roughly a 50% chance to win the bet. No extra-time or penalty shoot outs count for this type of bet.
The beauty of these types of bets is that the result of the match doesn’t matter, so even if your favourite team doesn’t win, it doesn’t matter, because all you care about is the number of goals scored.
In order to make a good Under/Over prediction you should take into consideration the following points:
The count of goals scored in past games between the two teams;
Both teams’ current form;
How many goals have been scored and conceded by both teams in the season so far;
Are the main strikers and defenders playing this week. No injuries? No suspensions?;
Weather forecast, because wet and windy conditions can lead to less goals and;
How many goals is the home team scoring at home and now many goals is the away team scoring in its away matches.
After you have assembled your data you should form an opinion on the goal picture for the game. In other words, what do you think the final score will be? Will the defences or the offences dominate?
If you are thinking 0-1 or 4-1 then your under/over 2.5 bet decision is extremely easy!
However, if you are predicting a scoreline of 1-1 or 2-1 then you should not bet on under/over 2.5 goals. In these circumstances you should either bet on under 3.5 goals, or not bet on totals on this game at all.
Remember, there are plenty of games to choose from and just because your favourite team is playing, or the game is televised and you can watch, are NOT reasons to bet if profit is your motivation.
On the other hand, if you are a recreational bettor with a low care factor for small wins or losses and you just want to add a bit of excitement to your selected match, then by all means have a bet on totals. Just don’t expect to win money over the long haul if you have done no analysis or if you are betting against your analysis!
Remember, always bet responsibly