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The last weeks of the 2012 Tusker Premier League are with us and with it, the usual movement at the top and bottom of the league standings.
At the top, it looks like it will be a three way battle for the title with either AFC Leopards, Gor Mahia or Tusker FC on the money to win.
I though, will choose to look at the bottom of the table where there is a big battle to avoid the drop.
Down there, it looks increasingly like it will swing between four teams, with Oserian, Rangers, Nairobi City Stars and Muhoroni Youth battling for survival.
With only two sides facing the drop, who will go down and who will survive? Here is my take.
Doomed
Going by fixtures remaining and points tally, Rangers look doomed.
They have no confidence whatsoever and the body language of most of their players and even head coach James Nandwa says it all.
A few days ago, I was sat with some of the Rangers players who have not been paid for months.
Confidence alone is a cause for worry when you are facing a relegation fight.. Having players who have not been paid is a disaster.
They need a miracle to stay up, as they face Sofapaka and Western Stima in their next two matches, which I do not see happening.
In with a chance
Oserian are second bottom, just three points off safety.
Since the arrival of Sammy Omollo at the club, they have remarkably improved and are now in a good position to stay up.
Their football is very good and if they had a little luck, they would have been safe for now. I watched their clash with Sofapaka recently and was very impressed.
Problem for them is that they also have some tough fixtures coming up, with in-form Mathare United, AFC Leopards and SoNy Sugar away from home all to come.
With the confidence they have, I will give them a 50-50 chance.
Experience
The Nairobi City Stars are the side with the most experience in the league in as far as battling relegation is concerned.
Having been thereabouts for the last couple of seasons, they know how to deal with relegation and its pressure.
That said, they have not been playing well and with head coach Gideon Ochieng away, you fear for them.
They have some easier fixtures than all their rivals with Rangers, Karuturi and KCB in line, while they face Tusker FC on the last day, in a game that you can say will likely be a dead rubber.
They can survive, but can also go down.. 50-50.
Form
If there is a side that is in-form at the moment and playing the football of it's life in the Tusker Premier League, it has to be Muhoroni.
They are doing really well and have collected wins that matter.
Even in games that they have lost, like against AFC Leopards and recently Gor Mahia, they have looked threatening and solid.
Of the whole lot, they have the worst fixtures, as they play Chemelil Sugar, Tusker FC, Gor Mahia and Western Stima.
However, they are five points away from the drop and if you ask me, they need just three points to survive. I think they will stay up.
